BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用  

Application of BP model to landslide hazard risk prediction

作　　者：吴益平[1] 唐辉明[2] 葛修润[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所,武汉430071 [2]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《岩土力学》2005年第9期1409-1413,共5页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.40072085)。

摘　　要：滑坡灾害具有整体性、动态性、开放性和随机性的特点,而人工神经网络属于非线性动态系统,具有符合区域滑坡灾害风险预测的研究特点。应用BP模型,建立了区域滑坡灾害风险的预测流程,并与GIS技术相结合,对三峡水库蓄水条件下巴东新县城的滑坡灾害进行了危险性、易损性、风险性综合预测研究,证明了BP模型在区域滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用可行性,同时指出了所存在的问题及可能解决的途径。Landslide hazard is a complex system of holism, dynamic, open and random characteristics; and the artificial neural network model is a nonlinear dynamic system, which is fit for regional landslide hazard risk prediction. The BP model for the zonation prediction of the landslide hazard risk is established. Applying BP model and GIS technology, the landslide hazard comprehensive prediction of New Badong County is carried out. Based on hazard evaluating and vulnerability estimating, the landslide risk after the completion of Three Gorges Reservoir is predicted in study area. The applicability of BP model for landslide hazard risk prediction is proved. At the same time, the existing questions and the possible solving ways are put forward.

关 键 词：BP模型 滑坡灾害 危险性 易损性 风险预测 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程] TB115[建筑科学—土工工程]