ARIMA模型在人均生活用水量预测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA for forecasting of per capita water consumption in Shanghai City

作　　者：陆志波[1] 陆雍森[1] 王娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《给水排水》2005年第10期97-101,共5页Water & Wastewater Engineering

摘　　要：随着生活用水量需求的日益增加,对于人均生活用水量的合理预测成为城市给水规划的关键。以上海市1949-2003年的人均生活用水量统计资料为依据,利用SPSS11．5软件的ARIMA模型功能对上海市短期人均生活用水量进行预测。该模型的缺点是只能对人均生活用水量数据做短期预测,对于长期预测,由于不确定性的增加,结果的偏差将有所增加。Domestic water consumption in big cities like Shanghai is increasing gradually, The forecasting of the per capita domestic water consumption has been become a key point in the planning of urban water supply. In this article, the statistic data of the annually per capita domestic water consumption from year 1949 to 2003 in Shanghai has been used to build the model. Then the SPSS 11.5 based ARIMA model will give out the forecasting data of the per capita domestic water consumption in Shanghai. The disadvantage of the model is that it can only forecast within a short term, the uncertainty of the result will increase for a long term forecasting.

关 键 词：ARIMA 生活用水量 预测 节水 ARIMA模型 用水量预测 应用 短期预测 水量需求 给水规划 

分 类 号：TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程] F832.5[经济管理—金融学]