基于路段交通量的趋势增长——概率分配路网交通量预测方法  

Forecast Road Network Traffic Using Probit Assignment Method Based on the Traffic Section Growth

作　　者：朱从坤[1] 冯焕焕[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学土木工程系,江苏苏州215011

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2005年第10期84-87,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技资助项目(200131822336)

摘　　要：结合中国西部地区路网的现状,以路网中各路段的历史交通量调查数据和区域经济资料为依据,利用多元回归模型对路网的正常交通量进行预测;以现状路网正常交通量为基础,利用概率分配法对新建或改建路网的转移交通量和诱增交通量进行预测,形成基于路网路段交通量调查资料的趋势增长———概率分配路网交通量预测方法。该方法继承了个别推算法的优点又摈弃了总量控制法的缺点,可操作性强,适用于西部地区的路网。According to actual road network in the west region of China, the authors developed a probit assignment method to forecast the road network traffic based on section traffic growth. Multiple regression model was used to forecast the general traffic volume based on traffic investigation and historical economy data and the probit assignment method was used to forecast the diverted traffic volume and the induced traffic volume of a new or rebuilded road.

关 键 词：正常交通量 转移交通量 诱增交通量 概率分配 路网交通量 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]