国家风险与重新安排债务的概率——亚洲5国的实证研究  

Country Risks and Possibility of Debt Rearrangement:the Experimental Analysis of 5 Asian Countries

作　　者：连秀花[1] 张金水[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院数量经济专业 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2005年第10期50-56,共7页Statistical Research

摘　　要：Using probit analyses,this paper identifies those risk factors that have an influence on the occurrence of debt rescheduling for five Asian countries that were badly hit by the Asian financial crisis of 1997～1998. Our results indicate that the real growth of GDP,the ratio of public debt to GDP,the amortization rate and changes in the real exchange rate were among the important factors that characterize the probability of debt rescheduling in Indonesia, Malaysia,the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand for 1980～2001. Our investigation also reveals the limitations of using probit analyses to study country risk.Using probit analyses, this paper identifies those risk factors that have an influence on the occurrence of debt rescheduling for five Asian countries that were badly hit by the Asian financial crisis of 1997 - 1998. Our results indicate that the real growth of GDP,the ratio of public debt to GDP,the amortization rate and changes in the real exchange rate were among the important factors that characterize the probability of debt rescheduling in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand for 1980 - 2001. Our investigation also reveals the limitations of using probit analyses to study country risk.

关 键 词：国家风险 经济风险 重新安排债务 概率单位模型 实证研究 亚洲 概率 债务 世界经济贸易 国际商务活动 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学] O211[理学—概率论与数理统计]