西安市日用水量预测模型研究  

Forecasting Model Research on Daily Water-consumption of Xi'an

作　　者：张雄[1] 党志良[1] 叶朝俐[1] 李洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《机械工程与自动化》2005年第5期65-68,共4页Mechanical Engineering & Automation

摘　　要：从分析影响西安市日用水量变化的主要因素着手,建立了西安市日用水量预测的回归模型,然后利用自回归模型对回归残差进行了修正。最后,结合所建的两个模型得到了西安市日用水量预测的综合模型,经检验,所建模型简单易用,预测误差小,能满足供水系统管理调度的要求。The paper begins with analyzing the main factors which influence the daily municipal water-consumption of Xi＇an. Then a regressive model on daily water-consumption forecasting of Xi＇an is given. Then an autoregressive model is used to modify the innovation sequence. Finally, joining the both models gains a comprehensive model for forecasting the daily municipal waterconsumption of Xi＇an. Through testing the model, we find that it is simple and easy to be understood, and its forecasting error is small. It is certain that the comprehensive modal is adequate for managing and operating the water-supply system.

关 键 词：日用水量预测 回归模型 自回归模型 

分 类 号：TU991.31[建筑科学—市政工程] O141.4[理学—数学]