基于BP模型的中国水产品出口规模预测研究  

A Research into Forecasting the Scale of Export of Our Aquatic Products on the Basis of BP Model

作　　者：杨卫[1] 平瑛[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海水产大学经济贸易学院,上海200090

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2005年第4期25-26,29,共3页Chinese Fisheries Economics

摘　　要：由于我国的信息咨询体系发展落后,水产品国际贸易缺乏及时、可靠的预测,导致我国水产品生产存在一定的盲目性,因此信息技术领域已经作为渔业科技十大重点发展领域之一,被列入农业部的工作重点。但是,水产品贸易受许多因素的影响,是一个高度复杂的非线性系统,使用传统的预测方法建立的模型很难对水产品贸易进行较为准确的预测,而利用BP神经网络建立的水产品贸易模型,己利用历史数据对模型进行了训练,最终可得到较为满意的结果。The production of aquatic products in China still remains blindfold to some extent, because our consulting system of information lags behind, which leads to the fact that our international trade in aquatic products lacks a timely and reliable forecast. Therefore, the area of information technology, as one of the ten emphasizing areas of fishery science, has been listed in the main tasks by the Ministry of Agriculture. However, the trade is affected by many factors; hence it is a very complicated and non-linear system. Model based on traditional forecasting methods can hardly predict the scale of trade exactly, while the model on the basis of BP neural networks can make use of former statistics to be trained by learning rules and then turn out to be rather satisfactory.

关 键 词：水产品贸易 BP神经网络 神经元 多层前馈型神经网络 

分 类 号：S911[农业科学—水产科学]