粮食生产灰色关联动态分析和预测  

Grey dynamic analysis and prediction of grain production

作　　者：巫锡柱[1] 晏路明[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2005年第4期244-247,251,共5页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BTJ004)

摘　　要：根据1986～2002年福建省的粮食统计资料,运用GM(1,1)模型对未来几年的粮食总产量进行预测,并运用灰色方法对影响粮食生产的诸因素进行关联动态分析.结果表明,未来几年福建省的粮食总产量下降非常明显,8个主要影响因子与粮食总产量呈显著关联,其中粮食播种面积、粮食单产和有效灌溉面积是影响福建省粮食总产量的3个最重要的因子,这可为今后福建省农业可持续发展提供参考.表4,参7.Based on the statistical data at the provincial level from 1986 to 2002, grain problem in Fujian province is discussed in two aspects with the help of the theory and method of grey system. Using the GM （ 1, 1） model, the varying trend of the total grain production from 2003 to 2010 is predicted .According to the grey system theory, factors affecting grain production are analyzed and the correlative degree between the factors and grain production is quantitatively measured.The results show that grain sown area, per unit area grain yield and effective irrigated area are the most important factors affecting grain production.This paper provides a scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Fujian province.

关 键 词：粮食总产量 GM(1 1)模型 灰色关联分析 福建省 

分 类 号：S117[农业科学—农业基础科学]