铁路客运专线的客运量预测  

Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast for Ded cated Passenger Railway Lines

作　　者：仇智勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]铁道第二勘察设计院线路处运量规划室工程师

出　　处：《世界轨道交通》2005年第2期37-39,共3页World Railway

摘　　要：铁路客运专线建成后，其运量主要由趋势客运量、转移客运量和诱增客运量3部分组成。以陇海线郑州西安客运专线为例，指出在转移和诱增客运量预测中应注意OD调查的准确性、服务特性的拟定和模型参数的标定。同时提出客运量分配时应注意的几个原则，以及有待进一步研究的主要问题。Following the completion of the dedicated passenger railway lines, the traffic volumes are mainly comprised of three parts, i.e. the Wend passenger traffic volume, the diversion passenger traffic volume and the induce-increased passenger traffic volume. Taking the case of the Zhengzhou-Xi＇an Dedicated Passenger Railway Line for example, the article puts forth the idea that attention should be paid to the accuracy of OD survey, the working out of the service

关 键 词：铁路客运专线 客运量预测 OD调查 模型参数 陇海线 配时 

分 类 号：U213.157[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U293.13