不确定性及建议  

Uncertainties and Recommendations

作　　者：Terry V.Callaghan Lars Olof Bjrn Yuri Chernov Terry Chapin Torben R.Christensen Brian Huntley Rolf A.Ims Margareta Johansson Dyanna Jolly Sven Jonasson Nadya Matveyeva Nicolai Panikov Walter Oechel Gus Shaver 寒江 

机构地区：[1]Abisko Scientific Research Station [2]Departnent of Cell and Organism Biology Lund University [3]A.N.Severtsov Institute of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology Russian Academy of Sciences [4]Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska [5]Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis GeoBiosphere Science Centre Lund University [6]School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences University of Durham [7]Institute of Biology University of Troms [8]Centre for Maori and Indigenous Planning and Development Lincoln University [9]Physiological Ecology Group Botanical Institute University of Copenhagen [10]Komarov Botanical Institute Russian Academy of Sciences [11]Stevens Technical University [12]Global Change Research Group San Diego State University [13]The Ecosystems Center Marine Biological Laboratory

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2004年第B11期450-455,共6页

摘　　要：在北极气候影响评估(ACIA)中,一项气候及紫外线B辐射变化对北极陆地生态系统影响的评估着重强调了预期中的变暖的深远意义,尤其是变暖在未来生态系统功能、生物多样性,以及对气候的反馈方面的深远意义。然而,尽管在有些地理区域和有些学科,我们目前对气候和紫外线B辐射驱动下生态过程及生态变化的了解已算充分,但在其他区域及学科,这种了解是微弱的。即使随着北极地区研究成果的积累和新技术的引用,近来我们的预测能力已空前提高,我们目前的了解程度也还受到各种各样的不确定性的限制。这项评估是在每一种都含有不确定性的一系列方式方法,以及常常远非完整的数据集的基础上完成的。不确定性从各种方法和概念框架而来,从不可预测的意外事件、从对模型的缺乏验证、从未来温室气体排放及气候变化的一些特别情景的应用而不是预测而来。此项评估中,以减少不确定性为目的的建议比比皆是,而且涉及所有学科。然而,一再出现的主题是:在北极这样人烟稀少的偏远地区,环境变化及其影响的实验、观察及监测活动达到足够的空间广度和时间长度是极其重要的。An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems,made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA),highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate.However,although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines,it is weak in others.Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies,our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties.The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete.Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks,from unpredictable surprises,from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios,rather than predictions,of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates.Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment.However,a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.

关 键 词：紫外线B辐射 气候变化 北极地区 不确定性 荒漠生态系统 影响评估 苔原 陆地生态系统 生态系统功能 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学] S718.5[农业科学—林学]