基于AHP法和灰色模式识别理论的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估  

Quantitative analysis of submarine pipeline routing risk based on AHP and grey-mode identification theory

作　　者：徐慧[1] 肖楠[1] 郭振邦[1] 王金英[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津300452

出　　处：《海洋工程》2005年第4期105-110,共6页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50039010)

摘　　要：根据海底管道路由潜在风险的特点及风险类型,提出了一种将层次分析法(AHP法)和灰色模式识别理论相结合的海底管道系统路由定量风险评估方法,该方法利用AHP确定风险评价指标体系,运用灰色模式识别理论,建立识别结果标准,并结合实际工程进行计算,计算结果表明该方法是可行的。In this paper, according to the fuzzy and indeterminate characteristics of the influencing factors, a new method for the quantitative analysis submarine pipeline routing risk is presented, basedon AHP theory and grey-mode identification theory. The guideline system for quan- titative routing risk evaluation and the evaluation standard based on grey-mode identification theory are also established. An example makes it clear that this model can concisely and directly reflect the hazard degree of the routing system.

关 键 词：层次分析法 灰色模式识别理论 海底管道路由定量风险 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]