水资源系统等级评价的一种非参数方法  

Nonparametric grade evaluation method for water resource system

作　　者：金菊良[1] 汪明武[1] 魏一鸣[2] 丁晶[3] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木建筑工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080 [3]四川大学水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水科学进展》2005年第6期804-809,共6页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579009);教育部优秀青年教师资助计划(教人司[2002]350);安徽省优秀青年科技基金(2001年度)资助项目~~

摘　　要：水资源系统等级评价是目前水资源系统工程研究的热点和难点之一,常规评价方法需要根据先验知识预先设定评价函数的具体结构形式,难以适应复杂多变的实际评价系统。为此,提出了一种非参数评价新方法(NGEM)。NGEM无需假定评价函数的具体表达形式,直接挖掘评价标准数据本身所隐含的评价信息,它用基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪方法客观地确定各指标权重,用非参数回归方法建立评价函数。实例计算结果说明,NGEM直观简便、有效通用,在各种系统预测与模拟中也具有应用价值。The grade evaluation of water resource system is a hotspot and difficulty problem in water resource system engineering. The common evaluation methods require that the structure form of evaluation function should be presumed beforehand, which are very difficulty to be adapted to the complex and variable practical evaluation systems. For this reason, a new nonparametric evaluation method for grade evaluation of water resource system （NGEM） is presented. The NGEM does not require the structure form of the evaluation function, and the evaluation information can be got directly from the evaluation standard datas, the objective weights of evaluation indexes can be determined by using the accelerating genetic algorithm based projection pursuit, and the evaluation function can be established by using accelerating genetic algorithm based nonparametric regressive method. The calculation examples show that the NGEM is visual, simple, effective and general, which can also be applied to both prediction and simulation of different water resource systems.

关 键 词：水资源系统 等级评价 评价函数 非参数评价方法 投影寻踪 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]