名优茶采摘高峰期的回归预测  

Regression Forecast on the Picking Peak Period of Famous and High-quality Tea

作　　者：过婉珍[1] 郑月英[1] 蒋炳芳[1] 马灿娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省临安市农业局,临安311300

出　　处：《茶叶通讯》2005年第4期33-36,39,共5页Journal of Tea Communication

摘　　要：名优茶采摘高峰期的预测,采用相关分析法,选取与采摘高峰期早迟影响关键的因子,X1为3月份的平均气温(℃),X2为3月份日均温高于10℃的积温(日度),以采摘茶叶高峰期4月1日=1,4月2日=2,……,建立回归方程为y=38.7141-2.13669X1-0.06405X2±1.2878,经对1990～2004年15a的回报,相符或基本相符;对2005年进行试报,也完全符合,历史拟合率为100%.Adopting the relative analysis method, and selecting the key factors which affect the time of picking peak period, forecast the picking peak period of famous and high-quality tea. Xi stands for the average temperature of March, X2 stands for the accumulative temperature of March when the daily average temperature higher than 10℃. During the picking peak period, according to April, 1st = 1, April, 2nd = 2, …… , set up the regression formula y = 38.7141 - 2. 13669X - 0.06405X2 ＋ 1.2878, it＇s accordant or approximate accordant with the review report on the past 15 years from 1990 to 2004, it＇s also absolutely accordant with the trial report on 2005, the history rate of accordance is 100%.

关 键 词：名优茶 高峰期 预测 

分 类 号：S571.1[农业科学—茶叶生产加工] O212[农业科学—作物学]