地裂缝灾害发生机理与“三图法”评价方法研究——以山西榆次地裂缝研究为例  

A “Three Maps” Method on the Evaluations of Ground Fissure Hazard

作　　者：武强[1] 陈佩佩[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学,北京100083 [2]煤炭科学研究总院,北京100012

出　　处：《地质学报》2005年第6期774-783,共10页Acta Geologica Sinica

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重大项目(编号2004-295);原国家计委重点防灾减灾项目(编号1998-206)联合资助的成果。

摘　　要：地质灾害定量评价是实施防灾、减灾工作的基础依据。本文在采用室内相似材料物理仿真模拟试验和非线性分形几何特征分析基础上,论述了榆次地裂缝的形成机理和基本发育特征与规律。并且,应用现代先进的地理信息系统(GIS)与非线性人工神经网络(ANN)耦合评价理论和方法,定量研究地质灾害形成的自然属性,对灾害危险性进行评价分区(第一图);然后,根据承灾体分布特征和当地社会、经济、环境和城市建设发展状况,应用地理信息系统与层次分析法(AHP)耦合理论与方法,定量研究地质灾害发生的社会属性,对承灾体易损性进行评价分区(第二图);综合地质灾害的自然和社会属性,应用地理信息系统技术,根据多源地学信息复合原理,对地质灾害危险性分区图与易损性分区图实施复合叠加,确定出地质灾害危害性评价分区图(第三图)。文章最后总结提出了地质灾害定量评价的“三图法”基本理论和方法。Evaluation of geo-hazard is the base of the prevention and alleviation of hazard. Based on indoor physical simulation and analyses of fractal geometrical characters, the mechanism of formation and the rule of basic development of the Yuci ground fissures are expatiated. In addition, the natural attribute of geo-hazard is studied, and the fatalness is evaluated and divided using the new nonlinear coupling technique of ANN and GIS. Then, the distribution of stricken body and development of local social and economy are analyzed, and the social attribution of geo-hazard and the vulnerability are evaluated using the new nonlinear coupling technique of AHP and GIS. After synthesizing the natural and social attribution of geo-hazard, applying the modern advanced GIS technology and based on the principle of compounding of variant geological information, the maps of distribution of the fatalness and the vulnerability are compounded, and the distribution of the hazardness of geo-hazard is confirmed. At last the paper presents the basic evaluation theory and methodology of ＂Three Maps＂ for ground fissure.

关 键 词：地裂缝 “三图法” 物理模拟 分形几何 人工神经网络 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]