耕作农场决策的环境和经济影响:一种综合建模方法  

Environmental and Economic Impacts of Decision-Making at an Arable Farm:An Integrative Modeling Approach

作　　者：Urban Lindgren Helena Elmquist 郝春燕（译） 吴晓峰（校） 

机构地区：[1]于默奥大学人文地理学副教授 [2]瑞典农业大学生物统计与工程系 [3]不详

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2005年第4期387-395,420,共9页

摘　　要：本文研究了耕作农场中自然环境和人类起源系统的相互依赖关系。动态模拟模型的方法论起源于环境系统分析和微型模拟的建模传统。这个模型复制了自然流(例如能源、原料、排放、产品)、作为决策者的农场主以及影响农场的结构状况之间的相互连接。运行模型的目的是为了回答:价格、津贴、农场主的环境观及其生产配置选择的能力的差别对盈利和环境的影响(例如温室气体的影响、富营养化、酸化和能源消耗)是什么?模型模拟的结果说明,例如,就经济表现而言,农场主可以从两个相对可持续的战略中选择,或者专注于有机生产(从而从更高津贴和输出价格中受益),或者专注于常规的耕作并使用杀虫剂和化肥(从而通过大量生产获益)。关于环境影响,由于分配肥料使用的困难,因此在有机农业和常规农业之间没有明确的区别。这个发现本质上是和系统边界的选择相关的,文章对于系统边界也作了彻底充分的讨论。This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming.The dynamic simulation model,which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation,reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g.energy,materials,emissions,and products),the farmer as a decision-making agent,and structural conditions influencing the farm.In running the model,the intention is to answer the question:What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e.greenhouse gas effects,eutrophication,acidification,and energy use) of variations in prices,subsidies,the farmer's environmental values,and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate,for example,that in terms of economic performance,a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies -either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices),or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields).Regarding environmental impacts,there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure.This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper.

关 键 词：自然环境 建模方法 经济影响 农场主 决策者 耕作 动态模拟模型 人类起源 系统分析 能源消耗 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]