苏北船闸服务系统到闸概率模型研究  

Statistical Model for the Arrival of Lock Service System

作　　者：黄海鸥[1] 张玮[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学交通学院,南京210098

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2006年第1期81-84,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：江苏交通科学研究计划项目资助(批准号:02Y017)

摘　　要：船舶的到闸过程是研究船闸服务系统的基础,单船过闸方式的复杂性则是研究过程中碰到的主要障碍.文中将单船的到闸和过闸结合起来,提出了“组合船队”的概念,简化了船闸服务系统船舶的交通流,使服务系统排队模型应用于船闸系统.船闸有两类顾客,即优先过闸的Ⅰ级船队和不提放的Ⅱ级船队,Ⅱ级船队包括一般船队和组合船队,通过对京航大运河施桥船闸2001年运营资料的统计分析,发现两个等级的顾客的到船过程均为Po isson规律,日到达的总顾客数则服从正态分布.the arrival model is the base of the research of the lock service system. This paper focuses on the statistic method for and the arrival process of the Shiqiao lock in the north Jiangsu part of the Grand Channel. Linked with the passing process,the ＇combined fleet＇ ,which ensures the order of the ship＇s arrival time,is used as the statistic object for the research of the arrival model,thus simplifies the lock service system model. There are two grades of fleets through the lock, the preferential passing fleets （ Ⅰ ） and no preferential passing fleets （ Ⅱ ）. According to the analysis on the arrival process, both grades have a Poisson arrival process. The number of fleets arriving per-day at both sides of the lock has a norm distribution.

关 键 词：水运工程 船闸 组合船队 抽样统计 到达规律 

分 类 号：U641.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]