配水管网中细菌再生长的预测研究  

Prediction of Bacterial Regrowth in Water Distribution System

作　　者：赵胜跃[1] 董丽华[1] 吴卿[1] 赵新华[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2006年第5期48-51,共4页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家"十五"重大科技专项(2002AA601120);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50478086);天津市科技发展计划项目(033113111)

摘　　要：管网中细菌的再生长及其所带来的问题日益得到了人们的关注和重视,为此以某高校的校园管网为研究对象,建立了细菌总数的预测模型。算例结果表明,线性回归模型对细菌再生长的预测结果不理想,但创新性地选用Logistic回归模型并结合主成分分析法则可对细菌总数(二分变量)的超标概率进行准确预测,当将模型判别概率设为0.85时其精度>90%,满足水质预警的要求。More and more close attention has been paid to the regrowth of bacteria in water distribution system and the problems arising therefrom. Research was made on the prediction of heterotrophic plate counts （HPC） in distribution network. Linear regression and Logistic regression models were formed. The result shows that the prediction impact of linear regression model is not well. The Logistic regression model is fit for the prediction of HPC which belongs in the dichotomous variable. The prediction precision is over 90% when the determinant probability of the model is supposed 0.85, thus meeting the requirement for warning water quality.

关 键 词：配水管网 细菌再生长 水质预测 二分变量 LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：TU991.21[建筑科学—市政工程]