上海市徐汇区1995-2004年20岁以下人群白血病死亡率Poisson回归分析  

Analysis using Poisson regression model on leukaemia mortality of people under 20 years of age during 1995 - 2004 in Xuhui district, Shanghai

作　　者：顾海雁[1] 黄萍萍[1] 刘锋[1] 李申生[1] 张红叶[1] 刘华[1] 倪红伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市徐汇区疾病预防控制中心,上海200031

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2006年第3期106-108,共3页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：[目的] 了解1995～2004年上海市徐汇区20岁以下人群白血病死亡率的时间变化趋势及其与性别、年龄的关系。 [方法]拟合Poisson回归模型,分析死亡人数与影响因素之间的关系。 [结果] 徐汇区10年间20岁以下人群白血病死亡率无随时间变化的趋势(z=0．38,P>0．5),女性死亡率低于男性(IRR=0．4706,P<0．1),0-4岁及5 ～9岁的死亡率均低于10～19岁者(IRR1=0．2308,IRR2=0．1538,P<0．05),每年因白血病死亡的20岁以下者平均2．5 人。 [结论] 徐汇区近10年20岁以下人群白血病死亡率稳定,但在性别和年龄上有差异;Poisson回归模型适用于类似资料的统计分析。[ Objective ] To investigate the time - trend of leukeamia mortality of people under 20 years of age, and to explore its relationship with age and gender during 1995 -2004. [ Methods ] To fit a Poisson regression model to analyze the relationship between the death toll and factors. [ Results ] Poisson regression model showed no time - trend （ z = 0. 38, P 〉 0. 5 ） in leukeamia mortality during the 10 years. The death toll of female was less than that of male （ IRR =0. 4706, P 〈0. 1 ） , ehildren aged 0 -4 and 5 -9 were less than that of 10 - 19 in mortality, respectively （IRR1 =0. 2308, IRR2 =0. 1538, P 〈0. 05）. The annual death number in recent 10 years averaged 2.5. [ Conclusion ] The leukaemia mortality of people under 20 years of age showed no time - trend during 1995 - 2004, whereas it differs in gender and age. Poisson regression model is suitable to analyze such kind of data.

关 键 词：白血病 Poison回归 死亡率 

分 类 号：R733.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]