霍林河流域下游地区土地利用变化动态及趋势预测  

The Dynamic Change and Trend Forecast of Land Use in the Lower Huolin River Basin

作　　者：崔健[1] 林年丰[1] 汤洁[1] 姜玲玲[1] 蔡宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院,长春130026 [2]松辽流域水资源保护局,长春130021

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（地球科学版）》2006年第2期259-264,共6页Journal of Jilin University：Earth Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40273047)

摘　　要：霍林河流域下游地区为半农半牧区，土地利用的变化对该地区的生态环境会产生重大的影响。采用空间分析测算模型，揭示了1989-2001年期间该地区土地利用的空间变化特征以及土地利用类型三减（草地、水体、湿地）两增（耕地和未利用土地）的变化规律；并通过马尔可夫模型预测出未来24年内该区土地利用类型的演变趋势，得出水田、旱田、林地、城乡用地的继续增加是以草地、水域、湿地的减少为代价的结论，对生态环境的保护和土地资源的合理利用具有参考价值。The lower Huolin River Basin is located in farming-pastoral zone and land use change have a great effect on the ecological environment in this area. Based on spatial analysis calculation model, it shows that spatial characteristics of land use change from 1989 to 2001 and the change regularity of land use types that the area of grassland, water area and marsh are decreasing and the area of barren land and infield are increasing. The evolution trend of land use types in future 24 years has been predicted by Markov model, and the growth of the area of woods and municipal land is based on the decrease of the area of grassland, water area and marsh in the future. The above conclusion is worthwhile for the protection of the ecological environment and rational utilization of the land resource.

关 键 词：土地利用 动态变化 空间分析测算模型 马尔可夫模型 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]