灰色关联分析在长输管道肯特风险评价中的应用  

The Application of Gray Correlation Analysis in W. Kent Muhlbauer Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Pipeline,

作　　者：田娜[1] 陈保东[1] 陈其胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁石油化工大学

出　　处：《油气储运》2006年第4期7-10,共4页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：肯特管道风险评价法是一种半定量风险评价法,这种方法在我国的应用还处在起步阶段,其理论基础和应用技术都很不完善。为有效处理评分中存在的主观性和不确定性因素,将模糊综合评判法引入到管道风险评价中,通过对影响管道风险的评价指标(因素)体系的综合分析,确定了灰色综合评价的层次结构模型。构建了由第三方破坏指数、腐蚀指数、设计指数、错误指数、介质危险指数5大指标体系构成的管道系统风险综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析与专家打分相结合的方法计算权重。在油气管道半定量风险评价中应用关联分析法,可以使评价结果更准确。The risk assessment on oil and gas pipeline introduced by W. Kent Muhlbauer is a method of the semi-quantitative risk assessment. This method is easy to learn and convenient for spreading. But the method is in the beginning stage in China. Its theoretical basis and applied technology are imperfect. The fuzzy integrative evaluation is introduced to pipeline risk assessment in order to effectively deal with the subjectivity and uncertainty in scoring. But the relatively risk calculation is not precise. The article introduces the application of gray correlation analysis in the semi-quantitative risk assessment on oil and gas pipeline. First, this paper-analyzes the evaluation indexes (factors) system influencing the pipeline risk, then, establishes the level structural model of the gray integrative evaluation. The integrative evaluation index system of pipeline system risk is made with third party damage,corrosion,design,incorrect operations and the hazard of the medium transported (five indexes system). The weights of different factors are imported in the calculation of the correlation level. And the level analysis and expert scoring of the weight calculation is introduced. The analytical results much more fit the pipeline risk situation because of the application of gray correlation analysis in the semi-quantitative risk assessment on oil and gas pipelines.

关 键 词：管道系统 灰色系统 关联分析 半定量风险评价 综合评价 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]