海港工程设计潮位计算方法  

Study on Calculation Methods of Design Tide Level for Sea Harbour Engineering

作　　者：黄蕙[1] 董霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学海洋学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2006年第2期29-33,共5页China Harbour Engineering

摘　　要：针对G um be l分布,考虑了连续样本及非连续样本两种情况,采用M on te-C arlo模拟分析技术,对海港工程设计潮位计算中的矩法(M OM)、最小二乘法(L-S)以及目前流行的线性矩法(L-M)进行了比较研究,同时采用沿海9个潮位站的资料进行了验证计算。结果表明,与M OM法和L-S法相比,L-M法具有最优的统计性能,建议为工程设计所采用;现有规范推荐的最小二乘法偏于安全,但对不连续系列或当总体分布参数Cv较小时,亦能提供较合理的设计成果。For the Gumbel probability distribution, three calculation methods of design tide level, namely the methods of moment （MOM）, the least squares （L-S） and the linear moments （L-M） are studied by means of Monte- Carlo technique, among which two kinds of samples are considered including the so called ＂continuous sample＂ and ＂non-continuous sample＂. Samples of extreme tides observed at 9 tide stations are also applied to verify the conclusion of the Monte-Carlo analysis. It is shown that, for design tide level analysis, L-M is the best method comparing to MOM and L-S, as it always offers the most reasonable estimation if valued by the statistical unbiasness and effectiveness. The method of L-S which is recommended by the current ＂Code of Hydrology for Sea Harbour＂ for the tide level design usually offers estimation with positive bias, which implies the possibility of a over safe design value may be obtained for engineering design. But it is also indicated that for the case of non continuous samples or samples with smaller coefficient of variation （Cv）, L-S is able to provide reasonable estimation for the design tide level.

关 键 词：海港工程 设计潮位 矩法 最小二乘法 线性矩法 

分 类 号：U652.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U652.72[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]