基于蒙特卡洛法的火灾下钢结构失效概率分析  

Analysis of Failure Probability of Steel Structure in Fire Based on Monte-Carlo Method

作　　者：张玉春[1] 罗新荣[1] 怀霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学能源与安全工程学院

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报》2006年第3期367-371,共5页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology

基　　金：教育部重点科技项目(105025)

摘　　要：建立了火灾下钢结构失效概率的计算模型,它结合结构可靠性工程中的蒙特卡洛法和钢结构抗火性能分析法来分析火灾随机性和确定性的双重耦合过程.该模型首先确定火灾随机场景,根据建筑物内火灾随机参数的概率分布,利用蒙特卡洛的混合同余法和反函数法产生火灾随机场景的抽样样本,然后利用OZone软件进行火灾下抽样样本的性能模拟,通过大量样本的模拟实现了结构在火灾下的失效概率分析.基于这一模型,分析了单室住宅火灾下钢梁在不同防火涂料厚度下的失效概率,为定量分析建筑结构火灾风险提供了新的方法和思路.Using Monte Carlo method and analytical method of steel structure resistance fire capability, a calculation model of failure probability of steel structure in fire was established. Based on the calculation model,double coupling process of randomness and determinacy was analyzed. Firstly, the random scene of fire was assumed. And then according to the probability distributions of the random parameters of fire in the building, a large number of samples were obtained using mixed congruence method and inverse function method of Monte Carlo. Finally, the performance of the samples was simulated using Ozone, and the failure probability of the structure in fire was analyzed. Based on this model, the failure probability of the girder steel under different thickness of fire retarding coating in fire, which happens in one living room, was discussed. It can provide a new method for quantitative analysis of fire risk of building structure.

关 键 词：火灾 钢结构 蒙特卡洛法 模型 失效概率 

分 类 号：TK477[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]