山东省碘缺乏病防治现状分析及病情预测研究  

Analysis of status quo and prediction of iodine deficiency disease in Shandong Province

作　　者：骆效宏[1] 李晓丽[2] 王玲芳[1] 蒋雯[1] 秦玉平[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地方病防治研究所碘缺乏病科,济南250014 [2]山东中医药大学

出　　处：《中国地方病学杂志》2006年第3期289-291,共3页Chinese Jouranl of Endemiology

摘　　要：目的了解山东省碘缺乏病防治现状,预测今后几年山东省碘缺乏病发病趋势。方法采用分层随机抽样法对山东省碘营养状况及居民户碘盐食用情况进行评估,对5年级学生及家庭主妇进行健康教育效果调查,并应用灰色动态模型对今后几年碘缺乏病发病情况进行预测。结果 2004年山东省合格碘盐食用率 91．2％,儿童甲状腺肿大率7．75％,儿童尿碘中位数199．1μg／L,学生和家庭主妇健康教育平均分分别为80分和88分,各项指标均已达到或接近国家碘缺乏病消除标准,今后几年将继续朝着好的方向发展。结论山东省碘缺乏病防治成效显著,未来几年内将继续保持良好的发展趋势。Objective To explore into the prevention situation of iodine deficiency disease （IDD） in Shandong Province so as to predict the trend of the disease. Methods The status of the iodine nutrition and local inhabitants eating edible iodized salt were evaluated by stratified randomized sampling. The effect of health education of schoolchildren and housewives were surveyed. The prevalence in the years followed was predicted using Grey Model. Results In 2004,the rate of edible qualified iodized salt was 91.2% ,the goiter rate of children was 7.75% and the median of urinary iodine was 199.1 μg/L. The schoolchildren and the housewives got an averaged mark of 80 and 88, respectively. They all reached or were close to the national eliminating criteria of IDD national elimination. These indicators would go in a desired way in the years followed. Conclusions The effect of IDD prevention is remarkable and will keep in a good trend.

关 键 词：碘 缺乏症 分析 模型 理论 预测 

分 类 号：R599[医药卫生—内科学]