北京市出租汽车换型期供给能力分析  

An Analysis on Taxi Supply-Capabilities during the Beijing Taxicab Renewal Period

作　　者：刘莹[1] 郑红普 张德欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通发展研究中心,北京100053 [2]北京市运输管理局,北京100053

出　　处：《城市交通》2006年第3期62-66,共5页Urban Transport of China

摘　　要：从2000年起,北京市出租汽车保有量一直保持稳定。但进入2004年7月,为了完成车型更新,北京市出租汽车开始了为期半年的大规模车辆报废,出租汽车保有量迅速降低,这为分析出租汽车保有量和供给能力的关系提供了很好的机会。根据出租汽车行业的特点,对出租汽车供给能力、实际供给能力和潜在供给能力等概念进行了阐述,分析总结了出租汽车供给能力的影响因素。以北京市出租汽车换型期保有量大幅波动为研究背景,以北京市6万余辆出租汽车的IC卡记录数据为基础,设计相关公式,计算和分析了北京市出租汽车换型期间不同保有量水平下的供给能力。就北京市出租汽车保有量变化对供给能力的影响进行了深入分析,并提出建议。The number of taxicabs in service （NTS） in Beijing has kept steady since 2000. However, in July 2004, the Beijing municipal government began a half-year period of taxicab renewal in a large amount, leading to a dramatic decrease in NTS in Beijing. The renewal provides an excellent opportunity to analyze the relationships between the NTS and the supply capacity of the taxi market （SCTM）, Based on the market characteristics and the SCTM data, this paper discusses the concepts of SCTM, the actual and potential SCTMs, and sorts out factors that impact the SCTM. Grounded on the dramatic changes of NTS during the renewal period, and according to the IC data of 60-thousand taxicabs in Beijing, the paper develops formulas to calculate the SCTMs under different NTSs maintained during the Beijing taxicab renewal period, and analyzes in detail the influences of NTS changes on SCTM, with some suggestions included as well.

关 键 词：出租汽车 供给能力 影响因素 保有量 

分 类 号：F572.88[经济管理—产业经济]