日本数值预报产品在丹东地区降水预报的检验和评估  

Verification of JMH′s NWP on Rainfall Forecast in Dandong, Liaoning Province

作　　者：高松影 孙连强 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省丹东气象台,118000

出　　处：《气象》2006年第6期79-83,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：选取2001年7月至2005年6月的日本数值预报传真图产品资料,依据《中短期天气预报质量检验办法》进行检验,并用天气学分析法对所得结果进行评估。结果表明:晴雨(雪)预报正确率和降水技巧评分较高;小雨预报效果好;暴雨(雪)预报准确率较高,但预报量值比实况量值明显偏小;对不同天气系统降水其预报能力不同;物理量与强降水有较好的对应关系。Based on the fax image products from July 2001 to June 2005, JMH＇s NWP precipitation forecast is verified by ＂the verification method of short-range and mid-range weather forecast＂. It shows that the PC and TS of clear/rain forecast is best, the TS of light rainfall forecast is better, and the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecast is better but the forecasting rainfall is less than the observations. There is different forecast capacity under various synoptic systems. Moreover, the physical variables of JMH＇s NWP products has well relationship with the heavy rain.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 降水预报 检验和评估 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.1