平交口右转机动车穿越直行自行车行为研究  

Study on Behavior of Right-Turning Motor Crossing Through Bicycles at Grade Intersection

作　　者：黄迪[1] 钱大琳[1] 赵春龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2006年第3期23-26,共4页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70540004);北京交通大学科技基金项目(2005SM086)

摘　　要：平面交叉口的机动车与非机动车的干扰主要由于机动车与自行车之间的相互穿越行为引起的.本文以其中的右转机动车穿越相邻车道直行自行车的行为为例,应用统计学方法,分析了机动车穿越前自身的速度,机动车进入干扰区时,干扰区内自行车的数量,自行车提供机动车穿越的间隙和后辆自行车的速度等相关影响因素.并在此基础上,应用logistic回归模型,建立了机动车穿越自行车的行为决策模型,经实测数据检验和验证,模型拟合度和预测精度良好.The interference between the motor vehicles flow and the non-motor vehicles flow at a grade intersection is mainly induced by crossing behavior of motor vehicles and bicycles. Without loss of generality, this study used the crossing behavior of right-turning motor vehicles and the through bicycles on neighbor lanes as the case study. Factors affecting the crossing behavior were analyzed, including the speed of motor vehicle before crossing, the number of bicycles in the interference area when motor vehicles entering, the gap between bicycles allowing motor vehicles to cross through and the speed of the following bicycle after the crossing. Then, one mathematical model describing the crossing behavior was built by applying the logistic regression model. Both the high degree fitness of the model and the precision of the forecasting results compared to the real data justified the validity of this model.

关 键 词：平面交叉口 机非干扰 穿越间隙 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：U491.262[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]