基于灰色理论的电力负荷预测模型及其应用的研究  

Research on Load Forecast Model Based on Grey Theory and Its Application in Power Supply System

作　　者：陈勃[1] 蒋劲[1] 郭涌涛[1] 邓武军[1] 

机构地区：[1]宜宾电业局,四川宜宾644002

出　　处：《四川电力技术》2006年第3期12-14,共3页Sichuan Electric Power Technology

摘　　要：基于灰色理论提出了在电力市场运营模式下,县(区)级电力负荷的中长期预测模型,并对某供电局2000年到2003年的销售电量进行了预测,预测结果与各年度的实际售电量相比,最大误差小于0.7%。说明建立的预测模型完全适合于该供电系统的负荷预测,具有重要的理论和实际意义。Based on Grey theory, a medium and long term load forecast model is described. The sales from 2000 to 2003 of one power supply bureau are forecasted, and comparing the results to the actual volume of electric power sold, the maximum error is lower than 0.7%. It shows that the pvopoeed forecast model is suitable for the load forecast of such power supply bureau, and it is of great significance in theory and practice.

关 键 词：灰色理论 电力市场 负荷预测 模型 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]