TRIZ理论在技术预测中的应用  

TRIZ & Application in Technology Forecasting

作　　者：顾林[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,江苏南京210032

出　　处：《机电产品开发与创新》2006年第3期18-19,47,共3页Development & Innovation of Machinery & Electrical Products

摘　　要：预测技术走向是一件很困难的事情。本文介绍了TRIZ理论及其在技术预测方面使用的“S曲线”方法。即通过对技术成熟度的预测,判断出是否对现有技术进行优化,还是开发新的核心技术。通过案例分析,详细叙述了数据的采集、数据库的建立、数据处理及预测方法。It＇s difficult to forecast technological changes. The article introduce TRIZ. TRIZ methods are applied to assess the maturity of a technical system with ＂S-Curve＂. With this information, a decision is made to optimize existing technologies or to develop new core technology. A case study is presented to show how to collect and process the data and how to set up database.

关 键 词：TRIZ理论 技术预测 应用 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]