基于人工神经网络的短期系统边际电价预测  

Short-term System Margin Price Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network

作　　者：尚玲玲[1] 汪全[1] 刘广建[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京102206

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2006年第4期40-42,共3页Shandong Electric Power

摘　　要：在对系统边际电价(SMP)的影响因素进行定性分析基础之上,采用了人工神经网络理论进行边际电价预测。在ANN模型中引入了平滑因子和遗忘因子,从而加快收敛速度并解决了ANN的遗忘问题。通过对某网局发电市场真实数据的仿真结果表明,该模型有预测精度高、速度快的优点。With the qualitative analysis of the influence factors of system margin price, we used the neural network theory for the system margin price forecasting. In the artificial neural net work model, this paper introduce the smoothing factor β and the forgetting faetolγ,as the result the refrain speed was accelerated and the forgetting problem was solved .Numerical result shows that efficiency and accuracy of this model .

关 键 词：电力市场 神经网络 电价预测 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F224[经济管理—国民经济]