鄱阳湖湿地区土地利用变化分析与预测  

Analyses and prediction of land use change in Poyang Lake wetland area

作　　者：崔丽娟[1] 陈文波[2] 赵小汎[2] 张曼胤[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所国家林业局林木培育重点实验室,北京100091 [2]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,江西南昌330045 [3]东北师范大学湿地生态与植被恢复重点实验室,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《福建林学院学报》2006年第3期240-246,共7页Journal of Fujian College of Forestry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30270275)

摘　　要：本文在遥感与地理信息系统支持下,建立了鄱阳湖湿地区新建县1996-2000年土地利用数据库,结合统计数据,运用马尔科夫与GM(1,1)2种预测方法对研究区未来的土地利用变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明2种预测方法的预测结果吻合度较高,研究区土地利用变化的总趋势为耕地持续减少,林地持续增加;建设用地面积加速增长,江滩湖滩减少速度放慢;湿地区域相对较稳定.结合研究区社会经济数据,文中还进一步分析了人口因素、经济发展水平、工业化与城镇化和地理位置与土地政策对土地变化趋势的影响.研究结果可为土地利用规划管理及政策的制定提供科学依据,为鄱阳湖湿地的管理提供背景资料和依据.Based on remote sensing and geographical information system, land use database of 1996 and 2000 in Xinjian County, the region of Poyang Lake wetland, were established. Two commonly used prediction modds, Markov model based on transformation matrix and GM（ 1, 1 ） based on Grey theory, respoctivcly were applied to predict land use change direction in the future. The resuits indicated that coincidence degree between two prediction modds was very high. Arable land and lake beach will decrease persistently. Forest land and construction land showed aeeclcration tendency. Grassland and water body will be level off in the future. The influential factom that affected land use change currently include population expansion, economy development, industrialization and urbanization, geographical position and land policy. The research results could provide scientific basis for land use planning and land use policy constitution in the region of Poyang Lake wetland.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫模型 灰色模型 土地利用变化预测 

分 类 号：P941.78[天文地球—自然地理学] X144[环境科学与工程—环境科学]