建筑物沉降的时间序列分析与预报  

Analysis and prediction of time series for building settlement

作　　者：兰孝奇[1] 杨永平[2] 黄庆 严红萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木工程学院,江苏南京210098 [2]北方自动控制技术研究所,山西太原030006 [3]江苏中江国际房地产公司,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第4期426-429,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：首先对建筑物沉降数据序列进行了平稳化处理,然后研究了平稳化序列的建模和预报方法,最后结合建筑物沉降监测的具体实例进行了时间序列的分析与预报.结果表明:将时间序列分析方法应用于建筑物沉降监测,具有建模容易、计算简单、预报快速的特点;时间序列分析方法对建筑物沉降具有较高的模型拟合及预报精度,尤其是短期预报,效果更佳;应尽量避免使用时间序列进行中长期预报,要根据实测数据对所建模型进行实时更新.With the original data of building settlement being processed smoothly, a study was performed of the process of modeling for prediction of stationary series. Time series analysis and prediction in a case study of settlement monitoring of buildings show that the introduction of time series analysis method into settlement monitoring of buildings makes it easy for modeling, computation and realization of fast prediction, and that it has high precision for model fitting and predication of building settlement, especially for short-term prediction. However, the time series is ineffective for middle and long-term prediction, and the developed model should be updated according to the measured data.

关 键 词：建筑物 沉降 时间序列分析 趋势项 平稳序列 预报 

分 类 号：TU433[建筑科学—岩土工程]