丘陵山区食物生产变化规律——以江西省为例  

The Changing Patterns of Food Production in Hilly Regionin Jiangxi Province

作　　者：吕爱清[1] 邱爱保[2] 卞新民[1] 杜国平[2] 陈路扬[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京210095 [2]宜春学院,江苏宜春336000

出　　处：《山地学报》2006年第4期459-465,共7页Mountain Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目成果(波动;效率与区域食物安全05JA790069);国家"十五"重点科技攻关计划项目(2001BA508B-15);江西省"十五"社科规划项目(05yj25)~~

摘　　要：1978-2003年江西食物生产总量与食物生产要素保障度呈高度正相关（0．885），这表明江西食物生产总量受生产要素投入驱动，资源因子锐减是导致2000-2003年江西食物总量下降的主要原因。洪涝灾害面积、低温灾害面积、洪涝绝收面积和低温绝收面积是导致自然灾害的强驱动因子，干旱灾害面积、干旱绝收面积、风雹灾害面积和风雹绝收面积是导致自然灾害的次强驱动因子。灌溉面积、农业劳动力等食物生产要素的波动与同期食物生产波动具有显著关联性，其显著关联序为：灌溉面积波动〉总种植面积波动〉农业劳动力波动〉农业资金投入波动〉化肥用量波动。1978-2003年江西食物波动指数与全要素相对生产率（TFRP）的走势基本一致，表现为食物波动平稳或食物呈较大正波动时TFRP较高，生产要素配置合理；而食物呈较大负波动时TFRP往往偏低。The guarantee degree of food production factors present high positive correlation（r = 0.885 ）with the total food from 1978 to 2003 in Jiangxi, which shows that Jiangxi＇s total food is affected by the input of food production factors such as labor and fertilizer. The sharply decline resource factors led to the descent of total food production in Jingxi from 2000 to 2003. Nature disasters factors in Jiangxi are also studied. The analysis show that the areas of flood, of low temperature and of zero gain of flood and low temperature are first strong driving factors of the natural disasters. The areas of drought, of wind-hai land of zero gain of drought and wind-hail are second. There are significant relationships between fluctuation of the food production and that of the food production factors at the same period, such as irrigated areas, agricultural laborers, and etc.. The affects of factors are decreased as follows ： irrigated area 〉 total plant area 〉 agricultural laborers 〉 input of agricultural capital 〉 consumption of chemical fertilizer. The tendency of food fluctuation index is almost the same with the total factor relative productivity （TFRP） from 1978 to 2003. TFRP is higher when food fluctuation is steady or high positive, which means the production factors are arranged reasonably. Otherwise, TFRP is lower when food shows intensenegative fluctuation.

关 键 词：食物波动 自然灾害 因子分析 灰色关联分析 全要素相对生产率 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]