乘积季节模型在商品房市场中的应用研究  

Research into the Application of Multiplicative Seasonal Model to Apartment Sales

作　　者：梁鑫[1] 韦程东[2] 谢佳利[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学数学科学学院,广西桂林541004 [2]广西师范学院数学与计算机科学系,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《广西师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2006年第2期8-12,共5页Journal of Guangxi Teachers Education University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：广西自然科学研究基金资助项目(0575051)

摘　　要：主要采用时间序列乘积季节模型(随机季节模型与ARIMA模型的结合式)及多元统计方法,对商品房市场的发展规律进行了研究.通过对合肥市2001年至2005年60个月份的月度商品房销售面积进行实证分析,建立了一个商品房市场销售规律的统计预测模型ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12,并对该模型进行适应性检验,得到较好的结果.最后,利用该模型对该市的房地产发展趋势进行了预测.In this paper we mainly adopt the time series multiplicative seasonal model（the combination of stochastic seasonal model and ARIMA model ）and multistatistic method, and make a research on the rules of development of apartment sales. In this paper, the demonstrative analysis is made of the area of monthly apartment sales for sixty months from 2001 to 2005 about the city of Hefei, and a statistic forecast model is built about the rule of apartment sales, and we also make the proof - test of applicability on the model, the proof - test gets the good effect . At the end of the paper, the trend of development of real estate of the city is forcast by using the model.

关 键 词：商品房销售面积 乘积季节模型 时间序列分析 SPSS系统 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]