基于金融安全的资本流动：理论解读与中国实证  

Capital Movements and Financial Security:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study of China

作　　者：李成[1] 郝俊香[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金融中心 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2006年第8期54-59,共6页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金"新时期的金融安全研究"(04BJY048);教育部"211"工程资助。

摘　　要：基于IS-LM-BP模型阐述了资本流动—经济非均衡的生成机制,揭示了资本流入规模、资本流入结构、外汇储备及经常项目是影响一国资本流动金融安全的主要因素。通过建立资本流动影响金融安全的测算体系,对1996～2005年我国资本流动进行了实证分析,结果表明：(1)中国资本流动状况总体较好,状态界定为安全；(2)资本流入规模正常,但期限结构不够合理；(3)现阶段我国资本流动的安全运行有保障。Based on IS-LM-BP model, this paper elaborated a mechanism of capital movements-economic disequilibrium. The mechanism disclosed that capital inflow scale, capital inflow structure, foreign exchange reserve and current account are the major factors which make capital movements crucial to financial security. By establishing a survey system about capital movements＇effects on financial security, we made an empirical study on China＇capital movements during 1996 and 2005. The results indicated： （1）the overall status of China＇capital movements is good, and the state can be categorized as＂safe＂; （2）the scale of capital inflows is proper while the structure is unreasonable; （3） there are sufficient safeguards against any adverse impact that capital movements may have on China.

关 键 词：资本流入规模 资本流入期限 金融安全 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]