基于Bayes性能退化模型的可靠性评定  

Reliability Evaluation Based on Bayes Performance Degradation Model

作　　者：张永强[1] 刘琦 周经伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院

出　　处：《电子产品可靠性与环境试验》2006年第4期46-49,共4页Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing

摘　　要：结合航空航天推进系统可靠性试验小子样的特点,在小子样条件下,首先对基于Bayes方法[1-2]性能退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究,然后结合随机变量函数的分布的计算[3],推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式。在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性。Based on the characteristic of small sampling of aerospace product＇s field test, the reliability evaluation method based on Bayes method and performance degradation theory is presented. First, the performance degradation parameter＇s calculation model based on Bayes method is analyzed and the parameter＇s posterior distribution is carried out. Then by the calculation of distribution for the random variable＇s function, the point and low confidence calculation formula for reliability evaluation are presented. An example is given to show the validity of this method.

关 键 词：航空航天推进系统 性能退化 贝叶斯分析 小子样 可靠性评定 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]