基于灰色关联分析的蒙特卡罗法建立水库出库水质预测模型  

MONTE-CARLO BASED FORECAST MODEL OF OUTLET WATER QUALITY OF A RESERVOIR ACCORDING TO GRAY CONNECTION ANALYSIS

作　　者：焦瑞峰[1] 吴昊[2] 师洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河水资源保护科学研究所,河南郑州450004 [2]黄河设计公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《环境工程》2006年第4期63-65,共3页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金--"黄河联合研究基金"项目;黄河典型污染物迁移转化规律(50239010)

摘　　要：运用灰色理论和蒙特卡罗方法相结合建立的水库出库水质预测模拟模型,首先采用灰色关联分析方法科学准确的识别出主要影响因素,接着用蒙特卡罗原理预测,克服了专家直接给定法的主观任意性,并且同时考虑多个主要因素对水质状况的影响,使预测出的结果客观、合理。Using the gray theory and the Monte-Carlo method,an imitative forecast model is established of the outlet water quality of a reservoir.At first the major influence factors are indentified accurately by the gray connection analysis method.Then subjective random of expert directly assigning method has been overcome by the Monte-Carlo theory.And the effects of many major factors are simultaneously considered on the water quality condition.Which can make the predicted result objective and reasonable.

关 键 词：水质预测 灰色关联分析 关联系数 蒙特卡罗 模拟 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]