基于Lyapunov指数λ的混沌预测及其在水文中的应用  

Chaos-forecast based on index of Lyapunov λ and its application in hydrology

作　　者：马惠群[1] 孙秀玲[1] 曹升乐[1] 张丽静[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学土建与水利学院,山东济南250061

出　　处：《山东科学》2006年第4期15-18,共4页Shandong Science

基　　金：山东省济南市科技计划重大专项资助项目(2005)

摘　　要：水文时间序列更具有随机性,但是否具有混沌性,能否用混沌预测原理进行预测,则需要引进Lyapunov指数λ进行判定。本文通过对山东小清河日径流的分析,计算出了小清河日径流序列的Lyapunov指数λ大于零,表明小清河的日径流量序列具有混沌性,可以用混沌原理进行预测;预测结果与实际观测值误差在允许范围之内,符合预测精度。Hydrological time series are stochastic,however,an index of Lyapunov λ. is still needed to estimate whether the series have the character of chaos and whether they can be forecasted by the chaos theory. This paper analysed the basic daily-runoff data of Xiaoqing river,found that the Lyapunov λ. of daily-runoff of Xiaoqing river is a positive number which means the daily-runoff of Xiaoqing river can be forecasted by chaos theory. The error between forecast result and observed data meets the forecast precision.

关 键 词：混沌 LYAPUNOV指数 水文 

分 类 号：P338.1[天文地球—水文科学]