可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论及实证研究(Ⅲ)——灾害数字仿真模型组构建  

Visualization-Based Disaster Digital Simulation Reconstruction Theory and Case Study(Ⅲ):-A Series of Models for Disaster Digital Simulation

作　　者：冯凯[1] 徐志胜[2] 桂小玲[1] 王丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省公安消防总队,广东广州510640 [2]中南大学防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《灾害学》2006年第3期5-9,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目:小城镇基础设施建设关键技术研究(2002BA806B03);城市公共安全综合试点研究(2002BA803B04)

摘　　要：可视化灾害数字仿真重构理论研究,不仅可以实现对灾害空间数据进行有效的集成管理和时空分析,而且为灾害的防治、应急管理和工程论证等提供可靠的依据,是解决灾害实验的危险性和不可重复性的最佳途径。本文提出灾害数字仿真模型建立的原则和步骤,抓住灾害数字仿真的核心共性问题,构建灾害数字仿真模型组:构建灾害危险性分析指标体系,运用非确定性概率方法,建立灾害危险性分析概率模型;首次建立灾害波及范围模型,提出灾害波及范围的仿真流程,提出灾害波及范围理论值与实测值之间对比修正思路;研究了灾害损失形成机制,建立了灾害损失预测模型的框架与数值表达。Visualization-Based Disaster Digital Simulation Reconstruction Theory is helpful not only to managing and analyzing disaster spatial data, but also to providing reliable proof for disaster reduction, emergency management and engineering demonstration, which is the best solution to solve the fatalness and non-repeatability of disaster experiment. In the paper the core problems of disaster digital simulation in common are deeply analyzed to construct a series of models for disaster digital simulation. The index of disaster hazard analysis is put forward to build probability model for hazard analysis by use of probabilistic method. Disaster impact scope model and relevant flowchart are built to illustrate the initiative idea of modifying the theoretic model by comparing it with real disaster effect. Formation mechanism of disaster losses and casualties is investigated to build the framework and numerical expression of prediction model of disaster losses and casualties. On the basis of the work above, the whole theoretical system of Visualization-Based Disaster Digital Simulation Reconstruction Theory is constructed.

关 键 词：可视化灾害 数字仿真 重构理论 建模 波及范围 危险性分析 损失预测 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]