指数寿命产品可靠性增长试验的Bayes分析  

Bayesian Analysis of Reliability-growth Test for Exponential Life Distribution Cases

作　　者：刘飞[1] 王中伟[1] 张为华 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学航天与材料工程学院,湖南长沙410008

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2006年第4期128-132,共5页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家863计划资助项目(2003AA765030)

摘　　要：针对指数寿命产品的定时、定数截尾试验方案,推广了Mazzuchi-Soyer模型的应用范围。首先引入模型假设,以狄氏分布作为先验分布,综合利用产品研制的历史信息和专家信息,结合产品研制各阶段试验数据,给出了各阶段可靠性的联合后验分布。然后利用Gibbs抽样算法解决后验推断计算问题,得到各阶段产品可靠性的Bayes点估计和区间估计。最后给出产品可靠性增长分析实例,表明了模型的优越性。In view of Type Ⅰ and Type Ⅱ censored for exponential life distfibution cases, the Mazzuchi-Soyer reliability growth model was extended to cover the life test. The Dirielilet distribution was taken as prior distribution in the model. The historical information and expert information were synthetically used. Combined with the life lest data of each development stage, the joint posterior distribution of each stage reliability was presented. Then, the Gibbs sampling algorithm was used to compute the posterior inference. The Bayesian estimators and Bayesian lower bound were gained for each stage reliability. Finally, the example sbows that the Bayesian model has apparent advantages.

关 键 词：指数分布 可靠性增长 狄氏分布 BAYES估计 联合后验分布 GibbS抽样算法 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] TB114.3[理学—数学]