改进的传染型余震序列模型  

Limited Power Law Formula and Omori Law

作　　者：王婷[1] 马丽[2] 李勇[1] 黄建平[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学科学学院统计与金融数学系,北京市新街口外大街19号100875 [2]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《中国地震》2006年第3期321-326,共6页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10371012;40574020和40134010)。

摘　　要：将有限幂律公式(LPL)应用到传染型余震序列模型(ETAS)中,并对原ETAS模型加以改进。以台湾集集地震早期余震序列为例,对原ETAS模型与改进的ETAS模型进行了对比分析,结果表明改进的ETAS模型要优于原ETAS模型。Since the earliest afiershocks are always less frequent than predicted by the modified Omori law due to the purely physical causes of aftershock shortage, and since the Limited Power Law （LPL） formula performs better than the Omori law for the earliest aftershocks, this paper modifies the Epidemic Type Afiershock Sequence （ETAS） model for the aftershock rate by using the LPL formula in place of the modified Omori law. The parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The model is then applied to the Chi-Chi sequence and the resulting AIC values show that the new model performs better than the original ETAS model for the earliest aftershocks.

关 键 词：有限幂律公式 大森公式 ETAS模型 LPL 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]