江苏及邻区地震活动自仿射分形特征及预报应用  

Self-affine Fractal Characteristics of Seismicity over Jiangsu and Adjacent Areas and Its Application to Earthquake Prediction

作　　者：李强[1] 徐桂明[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震局,南京210014

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2006年第3期296-299,共4页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：江苏省科技计划项目资助(BS2004045)

摘　　要：对江苏及邻区地震频次自仿射分形H值的变化特点作了研究，并对1970年以来发生在该地区的5级以上地震作了回溯性预测检验。研究结果显示，江苏及邻区地震频次的H值在0．59～0．99之间，地震活动具有确定和随机的双重属性，同时表明地震活动具有正继承性；对江苏及邻区的震例及其预报效能评价的研究表明，地震频次Ⅳ值下降的异常现象与江苏及邻区5级以上地震具有较好的对应关系，回溯性预测检验得到的R值为0．365。因而地震频次H值在该地区的地震预报中有较好的应用前景，值得用来探求未来中强地震可能发生的危险时段．In this paper, the characteristic of self-affine fractal H-value of earthquake frequency in Jiangsu Province and adjacent areas is studied, and the retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes （M≥5.0） in this region since 1970 is made. It is indicated that the H-value is between 0. 59 and 0. 99, which illustrates that the earthquake activity has both determinacy and randomicity as well as persistence. It is also indicated that the abnormal variation of lowering H-value is preferably corresponded to the earthquakes （M≥5.0） in the predictive efficiency evaluation of the earthquake examples in this area, and that the Rvalue derived from retrospective prediction test to the earthquakes （M≥5.0） in this region since 1970 is 0. 365, therefore the H-value can be used for predicting earthquake in Jiangsu Province and adjacent area. It is worthy using H-value to explore the dangerous period of time for the possible earthquakes to occur.

关 键 词：地震预报 非线性 地震频次 H值 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]