初创科技型企业生存前景的经验判别  

Empirical Discrimination of the Survival Prospect of Start-up High Technology Firms

作　　者：张伟[1] 钟卫东[2] 冯淑霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221008 [2]厦门大学科技企业孵化器研究中心,福建厦门361009 [3]徐州空军学院财务系,江苏徐州221006

出　　处：《商业研究》2006年第19期90-94,共5页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划项目"科技企业孵化器发展模式及运行机制研究"的阶段成果之一;项目编号:2004DGQ1D110

摘　　要：如何判别初创科技型企业未来的生存前景是各种投资机构和理论界都极为关注的问题。运用非条件Logistic回归模型,对厦门留学人员创业园内初创企业的生存状态进行了经验判别。在12个影响因素中,发现有3个因素与初创企业的生存状况密切相关。其中,既有的销路和明确的目标市场是促进初创企业成活率提高的因素,而产品适用范围的扩大反而会降低初创企业的生存概率。How to discriminate the survival and development prospect of start - up hi - tech firms is an issue highly concerned by both venture capital institutions and theoretical circles.The research paper uses non - conditional logistic regression model to make empirical discrimination about the survival and development status of start - up hi - tech enterprises registered in Xiamen Pioneering Park for Ovenseas Chinese Scholars. It is found that among the 12 factors of empirical discrimination, there are three key factors that are closely related to the survival status of start- up businesscs, Ready- to- use Marketing and sales channels and clearly defined target market can effectively increase the survival ratio of start - ups, whereas the extension of the product＇ s application scope can also decrease the survival probability of them.

关 键 词：初创科技型企业 非条件Logistic回归模型 生存状态 经验判别 

分 类 号：F276.44[经济管理—企业管理]