航空公司超员订票的分析  

An Analysis on the Over-sold Tickets of the Airline Company

作　　者：吴光年[1] 葛晓葵[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东教育学院数学系,广东广州510303

出　　处：《广东教育学院学报》2006年第5期48-51,共4页Journal of Guangdong Education Institute

摘　　要：航空公司能获得多大的利润在很大程度上取决于航空公司的售票策略.在假设价格不变的情况下,用静态分析的方法建立模型考查消费者行为,对航空公司是否采取超员订票,采取怎样的超员订票能够获得最大的利润进行了计算,结果表明:航空公司超员出售11%的机票能获得最大利润.利用超员订票的思想分析了海南航空公司推出的“旅行管家”业务.利用计算机模拟的方法对海南航空公司北京飞往广州的航班进行了模拟.How much profit that airlines can make largely depends on the sales strategies. Based on the assumption that the ticket price is unchanged, using the static analysis method, this paper constructs a mathematic model to research customer behavior, and calculates the levels of overbook service to make the most profit. The result shows that the airlines overbook flights by 11% will maximize the profit. This paper also analyzes the ＂Travel Keeper＂ promotion run by Hainan Airlines with the idea of overbooking flights, and finally conducts a computer simulation for scheduled HNA flights from Beijing to Guangzhou.

关 键 词：海南航空公司 二项分布 超员订票 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]