财政支出政策对宏观经济影响的时滞分析  

Analysis on Time-lag of Effects of Fiscal Expenditure Policy on Macroeconomic Variables

作　　者：赵志耘[1] 吕冰洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术信息研究所 [2]清华大学应用经济学

出　　处：《财贸经济》2006年第10期29-33,58,共6页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：本文是国家社会科学基金重点项目"积极财政政策效果评估及淡出策略研究"(04AJY006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文在建立财政支出与各宏观经济变量的向量自回归模型基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,分析财政支出政策的时滞。我们发现,我国财政支出增加对国民产出、民间部门投资和出口影响的时滞都为3个月,对最终消费影响的时滞为2个月；财政支出增加对全社会固定资产投资的影响程度最高,其次为固民产出,而对最终消费和出口的影响程度最低；财政支出增加对国民产出、全社会固定资产投资和出口的影响具有持久性,对最终消费影响的周期为5个月左右。By establishing a VAR models between fiscal expenditure and other macroeconomic variables,this article ana- lyzes fiscal expenditure's time lags using impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is estimated that the time lags of fiscal expenditure's effects on national output,private investment and expert are all three months,and that the time lag of fiscal expenditure's effects on total consummation is two months.It is found that fiscal expenditure's effects on national output,private investment and export last a long period and while that on total gross consummation is only about five months.

关 键 词：财政支出 向量自回归模型 时滞 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学] F224