宏观经济波动与人民币汇率政策的影响因素分析  

An Analysis on Factors of Macroeconomic Fluctuation and RMB Exchange Rate Policy

作　　者：冯涛[1] 张蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2006年第6期43-47,共5页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：本文通过对当前新一轮宏观经济波动特征的分析,发现随着中国经济对外开放度的日益提高,汇率政策对宏观经济的运行已具有越来越重要的影响。目前中国国际收支顺差过大、外汇储备增长过快已成为加剧宏观经济过热的重要因素之一。通过调整名义汇率来解决顺差过大的思路受制于价格总水平调整幅度的局限,因为在影响我国商品和劳务的价格因素中,劳动力价格水平与发达国家相比悬殊过大既是影响商品价格水平的一个主导性因素又是一个长期性因素,在短期内不可能大幅度的缩小这一差距。由此,决定了目前不可能采取对人民币汇率水平大幅升值的办法来解决国际收支失衡和外汇储备过快增长的问题。解决人民币汇率的市场化形成机制和汇率水平向真实汇率回归问题是一项相对长期的政策选择,因而,短期的汇率政策只能以外汇储备的结构调整为主导。Based on analysis on recent macroeconomic characteristics,the paper finds foreign exchange rate policy has increasing impact on macroeconomic performance with growingly opened China economy.China's huge international payment surplus and foreign exchange reserves have become one of the important factors leading over-hot economy.The resolution to international payment over-surplus with adjustment of nominal exchange rate is limited by overall price threshold because the labor price gap with developed economies,as one overall price level influence,would not be bridged in the short term.Thus,major RMB appreciation would not be a feasible way to deal with international payment problem.The resolution to market based RMB mechanics would be a long-term policy alternative while the short-term policy should be dominated by adjusting the foreign reserves structure.

关 键 词：国际收支失衡 汇率政策 结构调整 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.6F224