用回归-马氏链法预测我国油气的近期产量  

Regression-Markovian Chain to Predict China' s Petroleum Production Capacity in a Short-term

作　　者：许玉磊[1] 宋晓琴[1] 杨宇航[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学

出　　处：《油气储运》2006年第11期16-18,共3页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：精确的预测石油及天然气的产量对国家能源决策有着重要的作用,可为决策者提供理论依据,根据回归和马氏链的基本原理,并考虑其各自的特点,构造出预测我国石油及天然气产量的回归马氏链预测方法,该方法可以优势互补,使得预测结果更加合理可靠。This paper,based on the regression-Markovian Chain method,establishes the model to predict China's petroleum production capacity in a short-term.The authors take the advantage and disadvantage of this method into account to determine the oil capacity and gas capacity for the predicted years and obtain the equivalent oil and gas capacity.

关 键 词：回归模型 马氏链 概率矩阵 油气产量 预测 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]