Improvements onthe Earnings Forecast Model——Based on Correlation between Financial Ratio, Auditor Opinion and Future Earnings  

作　　者：Rui Lu 

机构地区：[1]Sun Yat-sen University

出　　处：《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》2005年第7期41-49,共9页现代会计与审计（英文版）

基　　金：This paper is sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.70172023） and Education Department of China （01JA630019）. The author is grateful to Prof. Minghai Wei of Sun Yat-sen University and Prof.

摘　　要：This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.

关 键 词：earnings forecast financial ratio auditor opinion going concern earnings management 

分 类 号：F275.2[经济管理—企业管理]