海温和气象因子对洪家渡水电站月径流量的影响  

Influences of sea surface temperature and meteorological factors on monthly runoff of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station

作　　者：葛朝霞[1] 顾月红[1] 曹丽青[1] 强学民[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第6期606-609,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(40233037);国家自然科学基金资助项目(90211011)

摘　　要：利用逐步回归的方法,考虑海温和气象因子的作用,设计了3种预报方案,建立了洪家渡水电站月径流量的预报模型,并进行了对比分析研究.结果表明:考虑海温因子与气象因子组合的逐步回归方案预报效果最佳,具有实用价值.最重要的3项影响因子是72.5°N,157.5°W^160°W海区的海温、东亚槽位置以及编号台风数.In consideration of the influences of sea surface temperature and meteorological factors, three kinds of schemes for forecasting the monthly runoff were designed, and a forecasting model for the monthly runoff of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station was developed by use of the stepwise regression method. The comparative analysis of the forecast results shows that the effect of the scheme with both sea surface temperature and meteorological factors taken into account is the best, and therefore, the scheme is of high applicability. It is also demonstrated that the sea surface temperature in the area of 72.5°N and 157.5°-160°W, the position of Asiatic trough and numbered typhoons are the most important influencing factors.

关 键 词：水电站 海温因子 气象因子 月径流量 预报模型 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]