Optimal Rules to Adopt High Technology under Uncertainty  

作　　者：张晓军 李仕民 

机构地区：[1]School of Management Science,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu 610054 China

出　　处：《Journal of Electronic Science and Technology of China》2006年第4期448-452,共5页中国电子科技（英文版）

摘　　要：In the research of choosing the optimal timing for the high technology products, especially IT products to the market, most studies prefer to provide the scope or infnnum of timing. In this paper, an optimal rule is adopted to guild the timing of high technology product to the market, this idea is illustrated through the theory of optimal stopping, and a high approach is developed to theoretical framework for timing decision. On this basis, a random programming model is established, in which the objective function is the expected profit to adopt high technology and the constraint condition is the successful probability over critical value a with all variables beyond the rule, and it is used to find the optimal timing of adopt high technology product.In the research of choosing the optimal timing for the high technology products, especially IT products to the market, most studies prefer to provide the scope or infnnum of timing. In this paper, an optimal rule is adopted to guild the timing of high technology product to the market, this idea is illustrated through the theory of optimal stopping, and a high approach is developed to theoretical framework for timing decision. On this basis, a random programming model is established, in which the objective function is the expected profit to adopt high technology and the constraint condition is the successful probability over critical value a with all variables beyond the rule, and it is used to find the optimal timing of adopt high technology product.

关 键 词：DECISION-MAKING high technology expected profit optimal stopping random programming 

分 类 号：F276.44[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]