夏季青藏高原上影响MCS东移的动力场特征研究  

A STUDY ON THE FEATURES OF DYNAMICAL FIELD INFLUENCING MCS TRAJECTORIES OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

作　　者：戴晓燕[1] 过仲阳[1] 吴健平[1] 王琦[1] 林珲[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]香港中文大学地理系地球信息科学联合实验室

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2006年第6期600-604,共5页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40371080);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(104083);武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室资助项目(WKL(03)0103);教育部留学回国人员基金共同资助

摘　　要：运用空间数据挖掘中的聚类方法(K-均值法和CLARANS法),对影响夏季青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCS)东移的动力场空间分布特征进行了研究,得到了有利于MCS移动和传播的动力学条件。研究成果不仅为预测高原上MCS的移动趋势,揭示其发生、发展的机理提供了一种新的方法和思路,且对于提高长江流域暴雨和强对流天气预报的准确性具有重要的实际应用价值。Clustering methods, i.e., the K-means method and CLARANS method, are used to analyze the spatial distribution features of dynamical field influencing Mesoscale Convective Systems（MCS） move out of the Tibetan Plateau eastward from June to August 1998, and the dynamical conditions favoring the trajectories and propagations of MCS are obtained. The results indicate that the changes of the spatial distribution features of vorticity field, divergence field and vertical wind speed field are helpful to predict the development of MCS. They offer a new method to discuss the regulations of MCS trajectories and the causes of MCS generation and development. The results also reveal that it is of great value in improving the precision of heavy rainfall and intensive convective weather forecasting in the Yangtze River Basin.

关 键 词：青藏高原 中尺度对流系统 动力场 空间聚类 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]