基于ARMA和小波变换的交通流预测模型研究  

Forecasting Model of Traffic Flow Based on ARMA and Wavelet Transform

作　　者：黄大荣[1] 宋军[1] 汪达成[1] 曹建秋[1] 李伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学计算机学院

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2006年第36期191-194,224,共5页Computer Engineering and Applications

摘　　要：基于小波变换理论和自回归滑动平均(ARMA)时间序列模型的相关知识,研究了智能交通优化控制系统中的交通流量的预测问题。首先,在对实际监测的交通流量数据进行小波变换处理的基础上,建立交通流量的预测模型;然后,利用最小二乘法理论对ARMA模型的参数结构进行了详细地分析;同时给出基于小波变换和ARMA模型的交通流优化控制系统的运行机理并设计出相应的网络拓扑模型和数据传输模型;最后,用某交通观测站的实测数据对模型进行实际仿真。仿真结果表明,文中所设计的模型和算法是有效的。Based on wavelet transform and Auto Regressive Moving Average （ARMA）,the forecasting traffic flow model which is used in optimal control of Intelligent Traffic system is researchod.First of all,we have extracted the new data from the online measured raw data of traffic flow via wavelet transform and constructed the forecasting model of traffic flow;Secondly,we have detailedly analyzed the parameter structure of ARMA by method of least squares;Simultaneous, we have designed the running principium of the optimal control system of traffic flow,the network topological structure and the data transmitted model;Finally,a simulated example has shown that the technique is effective and exact.The theoretical analysis indicates that the forecasting model and algorithms have a broad prospect for practical application.

关 键 词：交通流预测 小波变换 ARMA 最小二乘法 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]